Independent candidates to play key part in Kashmir election

On September 11, maverick Kashmiri politician Sheikh Abdul Rashid alias Engineer Rashid was released on interim bail from Tihar jail after spending over five years in a terror-funding case. 

As soon as he came out from jail, he said “I take a pledge that I will fight PM Modi’s narrative of ‘Naya Kashmir’, which has totally failed in J&K,” to a group of journalists, who were waiting for him outside the jail.  Even before he stepped out of prison, speculation was that his return to electoral politics in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) had the potential to change voter dynamics and could reshape the political landscape.
Both former chief ministers, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, questioned the timing of his release and called him a “Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) proxy”. However, Rashid responded “My fight is bigger than what Omar Abdullah says. His fight is for the chair, my fight is for the people. I am a victim of BJP, I will fight against PM Modi’s ideology till my last breath…I am coming to Kashmir to unite my people, not to divide them…”
The regional parties aren’t just concerned about the release of Rashid, they are also unsettled by a large number of independent candidates who have decided to contest the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
In the first two phases of the elections, 145 candidates have decided to try their luck across J&K. The tally is likely to increase in the third phase of the election.  Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) has announced that it will contest between 35 and 40 seats in the valley. All these candidates will fight independently as AIP is not registered with the Election Commission of India (ECI).
Similarly, the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) has put up around 10 candidates who are contesting independently. The socio-religious outfit was banned by the home affairs ministry (MHA) in the year 2019 under provisions of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act – UAPA.
Although independent candidates have contested elections in the past, the percentage of independents in the 2024 elections is notably higher, reaching 44%. In the 2008 assembly elections, 190 independent candidates contested, accounting for 37%. In 2014, this number dropped to 87 independents. The total number of candidates in 2008 was 518, while in 2014, it fell to 278. For the 2024 elections, the figure has risen slightly to 330.
The increase in the presence of independents will of course divide the votes in the valley and benefit the BJP. These candidates are not just new faces; many are prominent leaders who deserted regional parties like the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the National Conference (NC), and the Congress party. Now running as independents, their chances of winning the election are high.
While the BJP has the upper hand in the Jammu region, a Hindu majority region, it has fielded only 19 candidates in the Valley out of 47 seats. Although the Congress party has forged an alliance with NC to keep the BJP at bay, independent candidates who win could emerge as key players in forming the government.
Also, the new political fronts that emerged after the abrogation of Article 370 have relatively more influence in Kashmir than in Jammu. Although they underperformed in the recent Lok Sabha elections, they are still likely to split the vote in the assembly polls.
Political experts said the independents are inclined to the parties who have better resources and who are in power at the Centre. The BJP has all three—money, muscle and power.
“If the BJP does well in Jammu, it will be in a better position to convince independent candidates towards them and form the government,” said Ajaz Ashraf, a senior journalist based in New Delhi.  He, however, said that there’s likely to be increased polarisation along both religious and regional lines.
Other experts argued that the independents won’t have a “long life” as people usually vote for established parties in Jammu and Kashmir.  “The recent parliamentary elections are an example of how the new faces collapsed and couldn’t perform well in the elections. So, I don’t think independents will perform up to the expectations of the BJP,” said another political expert who wished not to be named. 
While Jammu may go with the BJP once again, all eyes are on the independent candidates in the Kashmir valley where the likelihood of a fractured mandate remains high.